Finding A Worthy Bet

Whether you’re at the racetrack, or playing the horses online at your favorite wagering site, do you pay attention to the tote board? You should because what you see take place on the board can make the difference between a winning and losing day.

Have you ever seen a horse open with morning line odds of 12-1, then leave the gate at 4-1? The odds on such a horse typically edge lower so slowly the average race goer does not notice until after the horse has crossed the finish line two lengths in front of the favorite. However, finding these “smart money” horses does not happen in every race. More likely, you will see scenarios similar to the two that follow.

Two days ago Julie’s Love was the track odds maker’s third choice in the Owsley Stakes at Belmont Park, opening at 7-2. The morning line favorite, La Conquerante, opened at 5-2. While the public was busy making La Conquerante the undeserved even money favorite, the odds on Julie’s Love steadily rose to 6-1.

When the race was over, the chalk players were disappointed as the favorite failed to hit the board while those of us with money on Julie’s Love were paid $15.60 to win, $6.90 to place, and $4.60 to show.

Yesterday, Magic Union, co-second choice at 4-1 on the morning line in the first race at Churchill Downs, finished first at odds of 9-1 while the four-to-five favorite, Liberated, finished third. Magic Union paid $21.20 to win, $8.40 to place, and $3.60 to show.

The place payout on both horses was better than the win payout for more than ninety percent of all favorites. It took me more than thirty years of traditional handicapping, where I settled for low payouts as I sought to find THE winner of every race, until I finally learned how to play The Logical Choice.

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