How I Approached the Kentucky Derby

Value-PlaysOn Friday morning, I posted a list of five horses I was  considering wagering on in the Kentucky Derby. Twenty years ago, I would have bet my top pick, Revolutionary, but I have since learned that picking THE winner in a race is not as important as making money on the race. So, here is how I decided which horses were worthy of a bet.

Revolutionary headed my list with morning line odds of 10-1. The horse left the gate at odds of 6-1. Most folks would consider that a good sign, but the odds were clearly not headed in the direction I was looking for. Therefore, I deemed Revolutionary not worthy of a bet.

Verrazano was second on my list and the second choice of the track odds maker at morning line odds of 4-1 while Goldencents was  his third choice at 5-1. As the horses were loading into the gate, both Verrazano and Goldencents were listed at 8-1 on the tote board. I deemed each one worthy of a bet.

Itsmyluckyday was listed at 15-1 on the program, but the odds had deflated to 8-1 by post time. This horse would get no bet from me.

Orb, the morning line favorite, opened at 7-2 and closed at 5-1. While the odds were not as high as I would have liked, they did fit my basic criteria. This horse was definitely worthy of a bet.

Normally, I would have passed this race as being too contentious, and I would not have made a bet. However, this race did not have the typical six to eight horse field. There were nineteen horses headed to post, making for an abnormal situation. So, I was faced with a dilemma. What should I do?

It was time for some basic math. If I bet all three horses I deemed worthy of a bet, and one of them won, I would  see a return of at least $12.00. If neither horse won, I would be out $6.00.

Since making money from wagering on horse races is a numbers games, there was only one Logical Choice — bet all three horses to win.

As you likely know by now, Orb won the race and paid $12.80 for every $2 Win ticket, and I more than doubled my money on the race.

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