No one can predict with certainty which horse will win a race, but finding a horse with odds that exceed its chance of winning is certainly possible. Unfortunately, most handicappers tend to make the same mistake over and over again. They seek to find THE winner of each race, whether they intend to make a Win wager on the horse, or key the horse in exotic wagers. Over time, they are not happy with their results, yet they continue to gravitate toward horses which are obvious contenders, the same contenders everyone else sees. They shy away from horses with an uncertain level of consistency because they apply fundamental handicapping principles beyond the point where they have any predictive value.
Most handicappers end up betting on horses that look good on paper. They cash a few tickets now and then which re-enforces their belief that betting on such horses is the only way to play the races. However, the payoff is seldom sufficient enough to provide an overall profit over any significant series of wagers. The net result is the handicapper loses money.
If the betting public correctly assesses the final outcome of a race, the odds on each horse should align with the final position of each horse in the race. That is, the horse with the lowest odds should finish first, the horse with the second lowest odds should finish second, etc. If this situation occurred in every race, which it rarely does, every horse would be an underlay due to the percentage of money extracted from the wagering pool by the racetrack. As a result, no one would make any money long-term. Luckily for those of us who seek Value Plays, such is not the case. We only need an occasional win to keep us coming back, and to keep us in the black year after year.
To be successful betting on horse races, you need an advantage over the average horse player. You cannot waste money betting on races where every horse in the field is an underlay. You must find overlays. You must find The Logical Choice. So, remember this: It is more important to know which race to bet than which horse to bet. If you choose to ignore this point, you will be condemned to a life of endless losses.