The importance of picking winners is highly overrated. If you have ever frequented a racetrack, I am sure someone has asked you, “Who do you like?” You probably thought about it for a moment, then gave that person the name of the horse you thought had the best chance to win the race. That is how most players attack the races. They look for the likely winner.
I am here to tell you, picking winners is not the most important thing you need to learn if you want to make money wagering on horse races. You need to learn that finding value for your wagered dollar out-ways all other handicapping factors you have been taught to believe in. Ask any professional player who makes six figures a year, and they will tell you the same thing. If your objective is to make money, the way to do so is not by picking winners.
If you bet on the most likely winner without considering whether you are getting a fair price, you will lose money long-term. Think of it this way: the public picks the winner thirty-seven to thirty-eight percent of the time, yet the payouts for those wins are not high enough to break even, let alone make money. However, if you can cash Win tickets seventeen percent of the time at odds of five-to-one or greater, you can make money.
My edge comes from the fact that price separates winning players from losers and I am wagering against players who cannot face that reality. The best looking horse on paper loses the race more often than it wins. If you eliminate low-odds horses from consideration, especially heavily bet favorites, you are presented with better wagering opportunities.