Recent studies have shown that fifty percent of all small businesses fail within the first year; that a staggering ninety-five percent close their doors before they hit their fifth year of operation. Based on those bleak statistics, it is highly unlikely that if you want to make a living betting on horse races you will fair any better. Most handicappers do not have the requisite skills, and fewer still bother to track how much money they have wagered, how they wagered it, and the outcome of each wager.
Sure, you know how to read the past performance records in the Daily Racing Form, and you cash more than the occasional winning ticket. Some months you may even be ahead of the game, but can you make it work month after month, year after year? If you think you can, it is time for a reality check. Most handicappers lose money playing the races. If I had to guess, I would say ninety-five percent or more fail to stay above the break-even point for any significant amount of time.
The reason is simple. Handicapping horse races is easily the most difficult task of any sport. I know, because I was at best a break-even handicapper for thirty-plus years. It wasn’t until someone suggested I handicap the handicappers that I started making money; that I gave up trying to find THE winner of any given race and instead began looking for horses that had a legitimate chance of winning but were overlooked by most of the bettors. I typically find one of two horses worthy of a wager in most, but not all, races. My ability to pass races is what allows me to stay ahead of the game and is the true mark of a professional.
Over the years, I have found that betting on horses with odds lower than 4-1 is counter productive, even in four and five horse fields. If you have read my book, you will know that I seldom bet on a horse going to post at less that 7-1 odds.