Identifying profitable wagering opportunities, those situations that offer you a chance to make money over a twelve-month period, is crucial for any horse player who wants to achieve success, and betting consistently on short-priced horses is not the road to riches. From my experience, taking the position of a contrarian is the only solution. You must reject the opinions of the majority and find your own path to success.
I have chosen to handicap the tote board, and I make a comfortable living doing so, but that may not work for you, another approach might be necessary. However, where do you begin? I would advise you to start by passing races that offer no value. When you come across a race with a four-horse field and the track odds maker has the morning line favorite listed at 6/5, that is a race you should pass. That horse will likely go to post at odds of 2/5, 3/5 tops, and you cannot make serious money wagering on horses with such short odds.
Conversely, if you have a race with an eight horse field and the favorite begins the day at odds of 3/1, and you’re not convinced the horse is worthy of being the favorite, that is a race worth looking at because sixty to sixty-five percent of the time the top choice of the public loses. I have seen many races where a false favorite was beaten by four or five lengths by a horse with odds of eight-to-one, twelve-to-one, etc. That is where the money is, and it is up to you to find those horses if you want to end the year with a profit because if you do not use the odds to your advantage, you will most likely lose money over any twelve-month period.
One last thing needs mentioning here. You must avoid succumbing to temptation. If you find a race that lacks potential value, you have to ignore the temptation to run up to the window at the last minute to place an ‘action’ bet. It is a dangerous practice that will decrease the size of your bankroll. If you need ‘action,’ you need to accept reality. You will never make serious money wagering on horse races.