Long Shots Pay The Rent, Favorites Deplete Your Bankroll

long-shot-movie-posterProfiting from your handicapping endeavors requires a methodical approach that encompasses money management skills, persistence, independence, and the ability to find long shot winners. You must do what others are unwilling to do, and that means you cannot play follow the leader and bet on the favorite, even if it looks as if the “smart money” is riding on that horse.

The fourth race at Hollywood Park on July 12, 2013, was a race where the morning line odds maker felt the public would have little faith in the abilities of any of the horses entered. He had placed luke warm odds of 7/2 on Dontextndrive, 4/1 odds on both Mikey T and Our Lucky Son, and 5/1 odds on Cinco De Mario. Next in line was Stayo at 12/1. The horses went to post at 3/1, 9/5, 3/1, 5/2, and 21/1 respectively.

The crowd did what it always does, it over bet the lowest priced horses, and for some unknown reason focused its attention on Mikey T. I will never know why, just as I will never know why most of the bettors totally ignored Stayo?

Here are two statistics you should never forget: Seventy percent (70%) of all winning horses come from the three horses with the lowest odds, and ninety percent (90%) of all winning horses come from the five horses with the lowest odds. It is from the fourth and fifth ranked horses that you will make your money if you are an astute handicapper.

Knowing full well that I am repeating myself, let me once again state the obvious: you cannot make money over any extended period of time by betting on low priced horses. If you are not cashing tickets on long shots that pay $16.00 or more at least fifteen percent of the time, how will you ever profit from your betting?

Oh, by the way. Stayo won the fourth race at Hollywood that day and paid $44.60 to win.Horse_50x50

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