When you consider making a wager on a Value Play, an overlay, if you prefer, you should be convinced you have found a profitable betting situation; that, win or lose, the bet is a legitimate one to place. Wagering under such circumstances should be done without hesitation, and should not be made if you find you are second guessing yourself.
In the early stages of my attempts at handicapping the handicappers, shortly after I first discovered the “John Doe” at Santa Anita who was making money betting on horse races simply by watching the tote board, I often found myself hesitating before making a bet. Wagering based on numbers found on the tote board was unfamiliar territory, and my bottom line suffered. It was much like the times when, by applying traditional handicapping principles, I would find a 6/1 or 8/1 contender I thought was the best bet in the race, then talk myself out of betting the horse because I did not feel confident enough to trust my handicapping skills.
In response to those periods of hesitation, I set up criteria under which I would force myself to make a bet no matter what the results were. I made some mistakes when I first took that approach, but no more than before I implemented my criteria, and over the years I have refined those criteria such that I now make wagers with confidence, knowing that even if I suffer what most would consider a significant losing streak, in the end I will come out on top.
I have established that this practice reduced the stress inherent with my making a living based on the results of a bunch of nags that have no idea there are bundles of money strapped on their backs along with those 116 pound jockeys. My bottom line improved drastically when I started making bets based on logic, and not emotion, which is what most bettors rely on whether they care to admit it or not. Psychologically, this betting approach improved my attitude after making losing wagers.