If I could show you a way you could zero-in on the winning horse in fifty-nine out of one hundred races, how much would you be willing to pay me for that selection method? Keep in mind these horses place an incredible eighty percent of the time, and they are within the first three finishers in over ninety-five percent of their races. I am sure I could find any number of people who would pay a hefty price for such a system.
Well, guess what? Today is your lucky day. I am going to share this process with you absolutely free of charge.
In early July of 2009, I began to notice a pattern developing that looked quite promising. I noticed that short-priced favorites that had three things in common were winning a lot of races. On July 19, 2009, I began documenting the results of horses that went to post with these three factors in common. I concluded the study on August 31, 2009 after observing the results of one hundred fifty-five races.
During this study, ninety-two of the one hundred fifty-five horses that went to post having these three factors in common won their respective races – a fifty-nine percent win rate. These horses placed a total of one hundred twenty-four times – an eighty percent win rate. They were one of the top three finishers in the race a total of one hundred forty-seven times – that is ninety-five percent of the time.
Have dollar signs begun flashing through your mind?
The three factors those horses had in common were:
- the track odds maker had made each horse the morning line favorite at odds of nine-to-five or less;
- each horse had a Brisnet Profit Line rating that was nine-to-five or less;
- each horse went to post as the favorite with final odds that were less than two-to-one.
Now, before you get too excited, let me share with you an unfortunate reality. You could not make any money betting these horses. Yes, you read that correctly! I had found a method of selecting horses on which to wager that produced fifty-nine percent winners, required no handicapping skills, took just seconds to act upon, yet I could not have made an overall profit on them had I bet them.
A $2.00 token bet on each of these one hundred fifty-five selections would have required a total outlay of $310. The ninety-two winners returned a total of $309.80. So, after playing one hundred fifty-five races over a span of six weeks, you would have had a loss of twenty cents. The same $310 bet to place on these one hundred fifty-five horses would have resulted in a loss of $7.30. Show betting would have resulted in a loss of $11.50. To be fair, many race goers would be thrilled they had lost so little money. However, that is not how I want to spend my time at the races.