Understanding the crowd, your competition at the racetrack, and how they approach handicapping is necessary if you are to remove the money they have in their wallets and place it in yours. The traditional handicapping methods in use by the masses today tend to lead most in the crowd to wager on the morning line favorites, those horses likely to go off at short, unprofitable odds.
The techniques used by most of your competitors came about due to the many books written on the subject of horse racing over the last fifty years. Unfortunately, when you see the selections made by the people who wrote those books, it becomes clear that these so-called experts consistently struggle to pick enough winners to show a profit.
You will ultimately discover that the approaches described in most handicapping books produce losses over time, but it is these “experts” who have influenced the general public, and that is why the majority of all race-goers wager on the three horses with the lowest odds.
In an article published five or six years ago, Paul Cornman, a professional handicapper who resides in Las Vegas, Nevada, was quoted as saying, “Handicapping is the world’s greatest problem solving game. Some people pick it up quickly and learn to win at it, but most don’t, just as with the stock market.”
In my experience, the key to making money in the stock market is finding the IBM’s and Apple’s of the world when their chances for success are still unknown. The key to making money betting on horse races is to find the winner that will pay $22.80 today, not by backing him in his next start when everyone else can see what he is capable of; when his odds have dropped to 5/2 instead of 10/1.