Maiden races should be avoided by anyone who wants to be considered a serious handicapper. I know there are people who will swear otherwise, but if you check to find out how much money they have made from gambling over the past twelve months, you will likely find a negative balance, due in part to their squandering of wagering funds on races where the outcome is highly questionable.
On Friday, August 23, 2013, Del Mar has carded a two-year-old race for $30,000 Maiden claimers. The following information is available in the past performance records for each horse.
PP #1 – finished 19 lengths behind the winner in its only start;
PP #2 – finished 6 lengths behind the winner in its last start; 13 lengths behind in its first start;
PP #3 – first time starter;
PP #4 – finished 20 lengths behind winner in its only start;
PP #5 – finished 22 lengths behind winner in its last start; 47 lengths behind in its first start;
PP #6 – finished third in its last start as favorite; out of the money in two previous starts;
PP #7 – finished 6 1/2 lengths behind winner in its only start;
PP #8 – first time starter;
PP #9 – first time starter;
PP #10 – first time starter;
PP #11 – likely favorite as it ran second last out, beaten by 2 1/2 lengths;
PP #12 – finished 10 lengths behind winner at Sacramento Fair in only start;
PP #13 – first time starter.
Since you cannot hope to make any serious money wagering on the only two horses that have finished on the board in a previous race and since no other horses have shown any signs of life, why would a sane person bet on this event? I certainly would not, yet if this race conforms to normality, close to $1,000,000 will be wagered on these as yet unproven creatures, some of which are destined for complete obscurity.