The Power of Early Speed

power-of-early-speedIn 2005, DRF Press published a book by Steve Klein titled, “The Power of Early Speed,” in which the author presents data from 201,237 dirt races and 32,347 turf races. From this data evolved Klein Speed Points which allegedly provide a precise gauge of how a horse will run, but the book leaves the following question unanswered: How predictive are his speed points?

The book failed to contain any tests or verifications of the author’s work. Do his numbers actually point out leaders? Do they show a profit? While The Power of Early Speed studies horses who get the early lead, the point system itself is not studied, and much of the book’s 301 pages is taken up with lists of tracks, trainers, and jockeys to refine the original early speed points calculation. Of course, these are now six years out of date.

Using Klein’s method the horses with the lowest speed point totals are likely to try for the early lead. In my opinion, it matters little whether you use numbers generated using Quirin’s system or Klein’s method as neither holds up well as a predictive tool for finding ‘the winner.’ Pace setters are usually obvious, mostly over bet, and can often be identified by eyeballing their running lines. The best you can say for speed points is they are informational, another number to look at, but do we need another number?

While both methods offer a starting point from which to begin your handicapping, you can calculate Quirin Speed Points without the need for charts and/or calculators. Based on comments I have read from those who have tried both approaches, Klein Speed Points are not worth the time involved in creating them. It should also be noted that Klein has modified his original formula twice since his book was published.

“The cool thing is that once I finished writing the book I was able to find the time to experiment with variations on the original Klein Speed Points formula. The one in the book is version 1.0. Since then I have made it even better by moving through two subsequent generations of significant improvements. The Klein Speed Points version 3.0 used on is the best one I have.

“Don’t bother asking me about the details of the improvements because the formula is strictly proprietary. The formula will not be offered for sale, nor will it be discussed in any detail. Just know that it is superior to the one offered in the book, and to anything else I have seen or heard of.”

Steve Klein sounds like a used car salesman of ill repute.Horse_50x50 “Trust me! The car was only driven by my grandmother to go to church and back on Sundays.”

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